Prescient Professors
An Army War College faculty study published before the invasion of Iraq makes frustrating
reading today. Warning that "a war tactically and operationally won can still lead to
strategic loss if post-conflict operations are poorly planned or executed," the February
2003 study predicted many subsequent events with uncanny accuracy. After an "initial
honeymoon period," it warned that "long-term gratitude is unlikely and suspicion of U.S.
motives will increase. The United States is deeply distrusted in the Arab World because
of strong ties to Israel and fears that it seeks...to control the region's oil." Instead
of a healthy democracy, the professors forecast the emergence of parties "based on
ethnic, religious, tribal and other factors," with their divisions exacerbated by armed
militias. "An exit strategy will require the establishment of political stability which
will be difficult to achieve given Iraq's fragmented population, weak political
institutions and propensity for rule by violence," the study stated, predicting Iraqis
would "take violent measures to hasten the departure of U.S. forces." "Merely toughening
it out is not a solution," the war college faculty found, but neither was leaving. "The
premature departure of U.S. troops could also result in civil war," they warned.
—Aviation Week & Space Technology. June 7, 2004. pg. 23
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